Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
