A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
